14 Results for : superforecasting

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    Tetlock, Philip: Superforecasting
    Erscheinungsdatum: 07.04.2016, Medium: Taschenbuch, Einband: Kartoniert / Broschiert, Titel: Superforecasting, Titelzusatz: The Art and Science of Prediction, Autor: Tetlock, Philip // Gardner, Dan, Verlag: Random House UK Ltd, Sprache: Englisch, Schlagworte: Marktforschung // Kognitionspsychologie // Psychologie // Englische Bücher // Wirtschaft // Business // Kognitive Psychologie // Ratgeber // Sachbuch: Psychologie, Rubrik: Wirtschaft // Werbung, Marketing, Seiten: 340, Gewicht: 251 gr, Verkäufer: averdo
    • Shop: averdo
    • Price: 12.59 EUR excl. shipping
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    Superforecasting
    Superforecasting ab 9.49 € als epub eBook: The Art and Science of Prediction. Aus dem Bereich: eBooks, Fachthemen & Wissenschaft, Sozialwissenschaften,
    • Shop: hugendubel
    • Price: 9.49 EUR excl. shipping
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    Superforecasting
    Superforecasting ab 12.99 € als Taschenbuch: The Art and Science of Prediction. Aus dem Bereich: Bücher, Taschenbücher, Wirtschaft & Soziales,
    • Shop: hugendubel
    • Price: 12.99 EUR excl. shipping
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    Summary of Superforecasting
    Summary of Superforecasting ab 4.99 € als epub eBook: by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Includes Analysis. Aus dem Bereich: eBooks, Fachthemen & Wissenschaft, Psychologie & Psychiatrie,
    • Shop: hugendubel
    • Price: 4.99 EUR excl. shipping
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    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review , Hörbuch, Digital, ungekürzt, 25min
    Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts.... PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and not the original book. In this Instaread of Superforecasting: Overview of the book Important people Key takeaways Analysis of key takeaways ungekürzt. Language: English. Narrator: Kevin Gillispie. Audio sample: https://samples.audible.de/bk/acx0/050427/bk_acx0_050427_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.
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    • Price: 9.95 EUR excl. shipping
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    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction , Hörbuch, Digital, ungekürzt, 585min
    From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters". In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic. PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying reference material will be available in your My Library section along with the audio. ungekürzt. Language: English. Narrator: Joel Richards. Audio sample: https://samples.audible.de/bk/adbl/013483/bk_adbl_013483_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.
    • Shop: Audible
    • Price: 9.95 EUR excl. shipping
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    Superforecasting - Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose
    Superforecasting - Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose ab 12.99 € als epub eBook: . Aus dem Bereich: eBooks, Belletristik,
    • Shop: hugendubel
    • Price: 12.99 EUR excl. shipping
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    Summary: Tetlock and Gardner's Superforecasting Summary: The Art and Science of Prediction , Hörbuch, Digital, ungekürzt, 21min
    This is a summary of Tetlock and Gardner's New York Times best seller: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters". In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. ungekürzt. Language: English. Narrator: Don Moffit. Audio sample: https://samples.audible.de/bk/acx0/060003/bk_acx0_060003_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.
    • Shop: Audible
    • Price: 9.95 EUR excl. shipping
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    Superforecasting - Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose (eBook, ePUB)
    Der Psychologe und Politikwissenschaftler Philip Tetlock gibt in seinem leichtverständlichen Wissenschafts-Sachbuch >Superforecasting. Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose< eine Anleitung für treffsichere Prognosen in einer unsicheren Zeit. »Superforecaster« sind Menschen, denen erstaunlich gute Vorhersagen in allen Bereichen gelingen - bessere als den Experten. Was macht sie so besonders? In einem großangelegten Forschungsprojekt ist Philip Tetlock dieser Frage nachgegangen und hat das Erfolgsgeheimnis der Superprognostiker gelüftet. Anhand anschaulicher und unterhaltsamer Beispiele zeigt er, wie wir alle bessere Prognosen für unser Leben machen können - denn wenn wir darüber nachdenken, eine neue Stelle zu suchen, zu heiraten, ein Haus zu kaufen, Geld zu investieren, ein Produkt auf den Markt zu bringen oder uns zur Ruhe zu setzen, dann hängen unsere Entscheidungen davon ab, was wir von der Zukunft erwarten. Ein wichtiges und nützliches Buch, um sich in einer immer komplexeren Welt besser zurechtzufinden.
    • Shop: buecher
    • Price: 12.99 EUR excl. shipping
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    Superforecasting
    Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight.
    • Shop: buecher
    • Price: 10.49 EUR excl. shipping

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